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 REPLICATION README
Title   : The Cross and Conflict: How do Christians Impact Protest Dynamics?
Author : Joel Day
Journal : Journal for the Scientific Study of Religion
Date    : March 2026

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OVERVIEW
--------
This package replicates all models, figures, and tables reported in the paper.
Everything is contained in a single script: mvprobit_replication_v2.R


FILES
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mvprobit_replication_v2.R       Master replication script (run this)
README.txt              This file
data/
  updatedCNdataA.xlsx   Analysis dataset (ACLED-based U.S. protest events)
output/                 Auto-created by the script
  figures/              All figures (PNG + PDF)
  tables/               Coefficients, fit stats, appendix Word tables
  fits.rds              Cached model fits (auto-generated; delete to re-estimate)
  session_info.txt      R session info for reproducibility


HOW TO RUN
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1. Install required packages:

   install.packages(c("dplyr", "tidyr", "ggplot2", "readxl",
                      "mvProbit", "patchwork", "officer", "flextable"))

2. Set working directory to this folder:

   setwd("path/to/Replication_Files")

3. Run the master script:

   source("mvprobit_replication_v2.R")

   Runtime: ~10–20 min (dominated by Model 7 full-precision estimation).
   On repeat runs, models load from fits.rds and the script runs in seconds.

   To force re-estimation, delete output/fits.rds before running.


OUTPUTS PRODUCED
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output/figures/
  Fig_SignTable_Contention.png / .pdf
  Fig_SignTable_MilitiaArmed.png / .pdf
  Fig_Model7_PredictedProbabilities_Stacked.png / .pdf

output/tables/
  mvprobit_nested_coefficients.csv
  mvprobit_nested_fitstats.csv
  mvprobit_model7_probabilities.csv
  Appendix_Tables_A1_A2.docx
  Appendix_Table_A1.csv
  Appendix_Table_A2.csv

output/
  session_info.txt
  fits.rds


MODEL SUMMARY
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Seven nested multivariate probit (MVProbit) models predicting two joint
binary outcomes: Contention and Militia/Armed Actors Present.

  M1 : ChristianKeywords only
  M2 : ChristianRight + ChristianLeft
  M3 : ChristianKeywords + controls
  M4 : Practices + controls
  M5 : ChristianLocation + controls
  M6 : ChristianRight + ChristianLeft + controls
  M7 : Full specification (all predictors + controls) — INFERENCE MODEL

Models 1–6 are estimated on a random subsample (n = 8,000) for model
comparison only. Model 7 is estimated on the full sample with full
simulation precision (nGHK = 50) and BHHH Hessian for standard errors.
Model 7 is the sole basis for statistical inference reported in the paper.

Controls: Racial, COVID, Abortion, LGBTQ, Conspiracy, Labor


R SESSION
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See output/session_info.txt for full session details.
R version 4.3+ recommended.

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